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Project Goal

This project builds a transparent, reproducible inference pipeline that confronts three dark-energy models — ΛCDM, CPL and an oscillating equation of state (Ξosc) — with Pantheon+SH0ES supernovae and DESI DR2 BAO distances. The question it asks is deliberately modest: can current distance data accommodate a small oscillatory component in w, and how does that compare with standard parameterisations once model complexity is penalised?

Exploratory release — not a detection

The project is released as v0.1.0 and is exploratory. It does not claim new physics: the aim is to document the pipeline, its constraints and its limits. See Known Limitations.

ProtocolProtocol 1b — Pantheon+SH0ES + DESI DR2 BAO
Data1,590 SNe (z > 0.01) + 13 BAO · N = 1,603
Sampleremcee · 100,000 steps × 96 walkers · burn-in 20,000
Fixedr_d = 147.09 Mpc
Statusv0.1.0 exploratory

What the project delivers​

DeliverableWhere
Three models with explicit equations and priorsThree Model Families · Prior Specification
Combined supernova + BAO likelihood with full covariancesInference Pipeline
MCMC chains, convergence diagnostics and AIC/BIC comparisonConvergence · Model Comparison
Constraints, corner plots and the oscillation-amplitude diagnosticResults
A pipeline you can rerun, from a smoke test to the final runReproducibility

Where the project stands​

The four figures below summarise the final Protocol 1b run (Pantheon+SH0ES + DESI DR2 BAO). Their reading, and what they do not show, is on Key Findings.

18.3
ΔAIC of ΛCDM
vs CPL (lowest AIC) · N = 1,603
1.94
ΔAIC of Ξosc
vs CPL · χ² lowest: Ξosc
0.185
Oscillation amplitude ε
+0.077 −0.087 · prior 0 < ε < 0.3
2.26σ
ε / σ_ε (symmetrised)
descriptive ratio, not a detection

Cross-references​

Related pageRelation
Scientific MotivationWhy test an oscillating w(t)
Key Findings (v0.1.0)Results with their caveats
Known LimitationsFixed r_d, reference-cosmology time, prior boundaries
ReproducibilityRerun the analysis